Just one run of one forecast model had weather watchers abuzz on Wednesday morning because it included the “S” word for early next week.
That’s right. Snow.
But it’s Alabama. It’s November. Is there really any chance there could be snow?
Never say never, but the chances were on the very low side as of Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service.
Weather enthusiasts were looking at one run of the GFS model — or the Global Forecast System — which showed a band of freezing rain or snow moving into parts of the state along with a strong cold front on Tuesday.
The front looks to deliver what could be the coldest air of the fall to Alabama, but most of the forecast models show no frozen precipitation coming along with it.
Except one.
Weather experts constantly caution against focusing solely on one run of one weather model — especially this far out in the future.
That includes the National Weather Service.
“Right now the biggest thing is that time period is so far away that even if it showed snow we wouldn’t put a lot of confidence in it,” said Jessica Winton, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Birmingham.
“Not just because it’s so far away. This kind of setup and this time of year ... it’s not something that is very frequent.”
Snow in Alabama — no matter what time of year — is always a dicey prospect. Rarely do we get the right combination of factors to give us the fluffy white stuff, much less in November.
“With winter weather you have so many factors that have to come together perfectly,” Winton said Wednesday morning.
“You have to have the cold air, you have to have enough moisture to make the snow. You can’t have anything else basically getting in the way. So this far out — there’s a lot that has to come together.”
That being said, the weather service plans to keep a close eye on the situation in case that changes.
There’s still one front to get out of the way first. That one is expected to move through on Thursday.
It will bring some rain (no severe weather) and temperatures will drop behind it.
Then the weekend looks to be on the drier side before the next front comes through on Monday.
It’s that one that’ll be watched closely for any winter weather mischief.
One thing is more certain: It’s going to get cold after that one rolls through.
“The magnitude of the cold air moving in behind this front is greater than anything we’ve seen so far this fall, and we expect the coldest temperatures of the fall so far midweek next week,” the National Weather Service in Huntsville said Wednesday in its morning forecast discussion.
“Get yourself mentally prepared for cold temperatures next week.”
The weather service will watching closely in case the forecast gets even trickier next week.
“I would say that right now we’re not really buying into it yet. In a couple of days if it’s still showing it or showing that there’s more moisture to work with then maybe we’ll start buying into it a little bit,” Winton said.
“Keep an eye on it and we’ll know more when it gets closer.”
"never" - Google News
November 06, 2019 at 10:27PM
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Is it going to snow next week in Alabama? Never say never, but no. - AL.com
"never" - Google News
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